Iranian regime facing “no cost-effective military options,” former official claims, as U.S. blockade threatens to choke oil exports and force strategic recalculation in Tehran
President Trump’s naval blockade of Iranian ports is focusing on one of the Islamic Republic’s most vulnerable areas — and it might be sufficient to encourage Tehran to react to the US’s peace efforts, a former senior Pakistani official told The Post on Monday after weekend negotiations here concluded with no agreement.
“This may prove totally wrong, but it’s my assumption that whatever option has been given to them as ‘Take it or leave it,’ they will come back on it — either saying ‘We accept it,’ or they will say, ‘We totally reject it,’” explained retired Lt. Gen. Muhammad Saeed. “Or they will say, ‘These are adjustments we seek in your option.’”
Saeed added that Iran will be eager to resume negotiations with Washington because “they know what economic hardships their people are facing.”
Iran’s economy was struggling long before the war began on Feb. 28, with international sanctions triggering financial woes, including a major currency devaluation that sent protesters into the streets for nationwide — and deadly — demonstrations in late December and early January.
“Irrespective of their perception of victory,” Saeed said, “they know what economic hardships their people are facing. They know the level of inflation. They know how terribly their own currency is.”
Perhaps most crucially, he added, the regime likely is aware of its military’s limits.
“While they would keep firing drones and missiles for a few more days, they don’t have compatible military means” to counter the US and Israel, “and they don’t have cost-effective military options to fall back on.”
US Marines fire rifles during a deck shoot aboard the forward-deployed amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7), in the US Central Command area of responsibility during Operation Epic Fury.U.S. Central Command Public Affairs
Since Vice President JD Vance on Sunday presented the Iranians with what he called a “best and final offer,” the ball has been in Iran’s court.
At least publicly, the regime in Tehran has not given a clear response to the pitch — the full details of which have not been officially confirmed by any of the parties — but President Trump indicated Monday the Iranians are interested in continuing discussions.
“We’ve been called this morning by the right people, the appropriate people and they want to work to do, they would like to work,” he told reporters at the White House, adding that Tehran wants a deal “very badly.”
While the blockade will likely hasten an Iranian response, former State Department official Mark Kimmitt said it was more likely Tehran would want to continue negotiations, rather than accept the US offer wholesale.
An Israeli self-propelled howitzer fires rounds toward southern Lebanon from a position in the upper Galilee in northern Israel near the border.AFP via Getty Images
“The blockade of the Strait [of Hormuz] should bring the Iranians back to the negotiation table, but not immediately,” said Kimmitt, who served as assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs under President George W. Bush.
“While the Iranians might express a willingness to discuss uranium enrichment, it is highly unlikely the current Iranian leadership would ever seriously consider terminating the program.”
But to move the needle, American forces must carryout the blockade effectively, according to retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“This blockade only works if the US Navy is persistent and stops and detains enough Iranian ships to deter the regime’s ability to export fossil fuels,” he said. “If the Navy is successful at that, they have a chance to force Tehran back to the table for meaningful concessions.”
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